System Dynamics as a Tool for Modeling Application Layer Cyber Security

System dynamics (SD) is a methodology used to understand how systems change over time. In the 1960s, the SD modeling technique was developed to solve long-term, chronic, dynamic industrial management problems; today, SD is applied to solve various business policies and strategic problems. A typical SD study focuses on understanding how the components of a system interact; how and why the dynamics of concern are generated; and how policies and decisions affect system performance. This paper presents a study which models a computer network as a systems dynamic model to explore cyber-attacks and the resulting system-level effects that might occur on host OSI layers, layer 4 and above, in the OSI model. Preliminary results indicate that by using system dynamic cyber security simulation an organization can imitate the attacker(s) activities in OSI layer 4 and above and assess (and/or mitigate) the system’s risk exposure. In this paper we are presenting a proof-of-concept SD model for application layer cyber security.